La Sfida Demografica delle Economie Emergenti

WASHINGTON, DC – L’invecchiamento della popolazione viene spesso citato come un’importante sfida economica per il mondo sviluppato. Ma un nuovo rapporto del McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) dimostra che i cambiamenti demografici rappresentano una minaccia ancora maggiore per le prospettive di crescita di molte economie emergenti.

Nel corso degli ultimi 50 anni, l’1,6% della crescita annuale della popolazione mondiale ha alimentato una crescente forza lavoro ed un rapido incremento del PIL all’interno di molte economie emergenti. L’occupazione è più che raddoppiata in Cina e Sud Africa, e almeno triplicata in Brasile, India, Indonesia, Messico e Nigeria. È aumentata di quasi nove volte in Arabia Saudita.

Ma, con il rallentamento dell’incremento demografico, si prevede un calo della crescita occupazionale media da 1,9% a 0,4% nelle economie emergenti. In termini assoluti, il declino sarà superiore a quello delle economie sviluppate, in cui si attende che prossimamente la crescita annua dell’occupazione diminuisca da 0,9% a 0,1%. Nella maggior parte delle economie, l’occupazione dovrebbe raggiungere il suo picco entro il prossimo mezzo secolo; in tale periodo, in Cina, la forza lavoro potrebbe ridursi del 20%.

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