Le défi démographique des économies émergentes

WASHINGTON, DC – Le vieillissement de la population est souvent cité comme un enjeu économique majeur pour le monde développé. Mais un nouveau rapport du McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) montre que les changements démographiques constituent une menace encore plus grande pour les perspectives de croissance de nombreuses économies émergentes.

Au cours des 50 dernières années, une croissance de la population mondiale de 1,6% par an a alimenté une explosion de la main-d'œuvre disponible et une augmentation rapide du PIB dans de nombreux pays émergents. L'emploi a plus que doublé en Chine et en Afrique du Sud, et au moins triplé au Brésil, en Inde, en Indonésie, au Mexique et au Nigeria. En Arabie saoudite, l'emploi a augmenté de près de neuf fois.

Cependant, le ralentissement de la croissance de la population a fait chuter la croissance annuelle moyenne de l'emploi dans les économies émergentes de 1,9% à 0,4%. En termes absolus, la baisse sera supérieure à celle des économies développées, où la croissance annuelle de l'emploi devrait diminuer de 0,9% à 0,1% dans les années à venir. Dans la plupart des économies, l'emploi devrait atteindre son maximum au cours du prochain demi-siècle ; en Chine, la population active pourrait diminuer de 20% durant cette période.

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