新兴经济体的人口挑战

发自华盛顿特区——人口老化常常被认为是发达国家所面对的一项重大经济挑战。而由麦肯锡国际研究中心所发布的一项最新报告则显示,不断转化的人口构成已经对许多新兴经济体的增长前景构成了更为重大的威胁。

在过去50年间,全球1.6%的年均人口增长率为许多新兴经济体带来了一大波劳动力大军以及迅速的GDP增长。中国和南非的就业数量翻了一番以上,而在巴西、印度、印尼,墨西哥和尼日利亚则增加了至少三倍。沙特的就业职位则增长了几乎九倍。

但随着人口增长逐渐放缓,新兴经济体的年均就业增长率预计也将由1.9%下跌到0.4%。以绝对值计算,这一下跌幅度将远超发达国家,而后者在未来几年的下跌幅度为从0.9%跌至0.1%。在大多数经济体中,就业职位预计在未来50年内到达顶峰;而在中国,劳动人口数量将在这一时期内减少20%。

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