Shehzad Noorani/Majority World/UIG via Getty Images

经济趋同的未来

华盛顿—世界正面临观察家所谓的“同步”增长上扬。这对于发达国家和发展中国家的经济“趋同”意味着什么?趋同的话题自十年前大衰退开始以来便鲜有人提及。

20世纪90年代,发展中国家增长开始总体快于发达国家(用人均标准衡量),这让很多人乐观地认为这两类国家的产出和收入将会趋于一致。从1990年到2007年,发展中经济体平均年人均增长比发达经济体高2.5个百分点。2000—2007年,这一差距进一步拉大,达到了3.5个百分点。

尽管不是所有国家都能取得进步——许多小经济体表现不佳——但从总量看,世界经济的结构一直在改变。在庞大而有活力的印度——以及更有过之的中国,它经历了近三十年的两位数GDP增长——的推动下,亚洲国家以极快的速度赶超发达经济体。

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