La seguridad en Oriente Medio en 2014

JERUSALEM – La región del Oriente Medio es el lugar adonde van las predicciones a morir. Y la reciente turbulencia en la región lleva a que predecir los próximos eventos en la zona resulte más difícil aún. Pero, como quedó cada vez más claro en 2013, la fuente principal de las crisis en Oriente Medio no es un «choque de civilizaciones», sino un choque dentro del Islam, cuyo centro radica en la división entre suníes y shiíes.

La cantidad de muertes de civiles por esta lucha es asombrosa. El total de muertos en Afganistán, Egipto, Irak, Libia y Siria combinados es en la actualidad cercano a varios cientos de miles –tal vez 10 veces la cantidad de muertes por el conflicto israelí-palestino desde 1948– y millones más padecen vidas miserables como refugiados.

Ahora que la Primavera Árabe se ha congelado, las perspectivas regionales para 2014 parecen sombrías. Aún hay oportunidades sobre la mesa y probablemente otras surgirán durante el año entrante. Pero aprovecharlas requerirá liderazgo global, claridad estratégica, sutileza y decisión, casi todas condiciones ausentes en 2013.

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