Le Moyen-Orient et la sécurité en 2014

JERUSALEM – Le Moyen-Orient est une région imprévisible. Et les récentes turbulences dans la région rendent totalement hasardeuse toute hypothèse quant au cours des événements. Mais, ainsi que c'est devenu manifeste en 2013, la principale source des crises du Moyen-Orient ne réside pas dans un "affrontement des civilisations", mais dans un affrontement au sein même de l'islam, centré sur la fracture entre chiites et sunnites.

Le nombre de victimes civiles de cette lutte est impressionnant. Sans parler des millions de réfugiés qui mènent une vie misérable, le total des tués en Afghanistan, en Egypte, en Libye et en Syrie se compte en centaines de milliers - peut-être dix fois plus que le nombre de morts dans le conflit israélo-palestinien depuis 1948.

Avec le Printemps arabe qui est maintenant entièrement gelé, les perspectives de la région pour 2014 sont mauvaises. Il reste encore quelques possibilités d'amélioration et d'autres vont sûrement apparaître au cours de l'année qui vient, mais les saisir suppose un leadership mondial, une grande clarté stratégique, le sens des nuances et du volontarisme - autant d'éléments qui ont fait défaut en 2013.

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