Paul Lachine

مِصر صانعة السلام؟

تل أبيب ــ قبل أن يتصاعد الاقتتال الحالي بين إسرائيل وحماس في غزة إلى مستويات أشد عنفا، فلابد من التوصل إلى اتفاق لوقف إطلاق النار. صحيح أن أي هدنة، مثلها كمثل وقف إطلاق النار مرات ومرات في السابق، من المرجح أن تكون مؤقتة، إذ من المحتم أن تقوضها القوى التي تعمل على إدامة صراع إسرائيل المسلح مع حماس. ولكن على الرغم من هذا، فمع إنهاك سوريا في حرب أهلية طاحنة وفي ظل حالة عدم الاستقرار التي تسود الشرق الأوسط، يصبح وقف إطلاق النار ضرورة أساسية من أجل إنقاذ الأرواح والحفاظ على السلام الإقليمي الهش اليوم.

والواقع أن الكثير يعتمد على مصر. فمصر تحتل الموضع الأفضل للتوسط بين الأطراف من أجل التوصل إلى اتفاق. ولكن تقييم احتمالات نجاح أي جهد دبلوماسي يتطلب فهم وجهات نظر الجهات الفاعلة الرئيسية وأجنداتها.

فإسرائيل لا تنتهج سياسة شاملة في التعامل مع غزة. كان رئيس الوزراء الأسبق آرييل شارون قد اتخذ خطوة شجاعة بالانسحاب من جانب واحد من غزة وتفكيك المستوطنات الإسرائيلية هناك. ولكنه سقط مريضاً قبل أن يصبح في الإمكان تكييف هذه التدابير في إطار جهد أكبر يرمي إلى معالجة القضية الفلسطينية.

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