El renacimiento de Egipto

EL CAIRO – Si hemos de creer los indicadores macroeconómicos, el crecimiento económico de Egipto casi se ha estancado en los tres últimos años. Las entradas de inversión extranjera directa se han agotado y las tasas de crecimiento del PIB se han desplomado desde nada menos que el siete por ciento en 2008 y 2009 a tan sólo un dos por ciento en 2013, pero, ¿se deben creer los indicadores?

La respuesta es que sí y que no. Aunque nunca se debe tomar el PIB como representación precisa de la salud económica de un país, en Egipto las cifras sí que reflejan el desplome de toda la capacidad productiva del país en los años siguientes a la caída del régimen de Hosni Mubarak en 2011. Las agencias de clasificación más importantes, que antes consideraban a Egipto uno de los mercados en ascenso más prometedores de la región, han dejado los tantos crediticios del país por los suelos, lo que ha disuadido a los inversores extranjeros. Además, la revolución contra Mubarak provocó una huída de capitales en masa, que ha reducido a la mitad las reservas de divisas del país.

Y no acaban ahí las malas noticias. Ya ha habido siete gobiernos desde 2011 y la agitación social ha movido a las autoridades a ponerse a la defensiva, lo que ha sofocado todo impulso reformista. Con un desempleo que asciende a entre el 30 y el 40 por ciento, el Gobierno afronta una población privada del derecho de voto y cada vez más resentida. Entretanto, el capitalismo de amiguetes incrementa la desigualdad de ingresos, entorpece el desarrollo rural y erosiona el sistema educativo.

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