Ägyptens Wiedergeburt

KAIRO – Wenn man makroökonomischen Kennzahlen Glauben schenken darf, ist das ägyptische Wirtschaftswachstum in den letzten drei Jahren beinahe zum Erliegen gekommen. Der Zustrom an ausländischen Direktinvestitionen ist versiegt und die BIP-Wachstumsrate stürzte von hohen 7 Prozent in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 auf magere 2 Prozent im Jahr 2013 ab. Aber darf man diesen Kennzahlen wirklich glauben?

Die Antwort lautet ja und nein. Obwohl man das BIP nie als ein genaues Abbild der wirtschaftlichen Gesundheit eines Landes betrachten sollte, spiegeln Ägyptens Zahlen den Zusammenbruch der gesamten Produktionskapazität des Landes in den Jahren nach dem Sturz des Regimes von Hosni Mubarak im Jahr 2011 wider. Die großen Ratingagenturen, die Ägypten zuvor als einen der vielversprechendsten Schwellenmärkte der Region eingestuft hatten, senkten die Kreditwürdigkeit des Landes drastisch und schreckten damit ausländische Investoren ab. Außerdem führte die Revolution gegen Mubarak zu einer massiven Kapitalflucht, aufgrund derer sich die Währungsreserven des Landes halbierten.

Die schlechten Nachrichten sind hier allerdings noch nicht zu Ende. Seit 2011 waren bereits sieben Regierungen im Amt. Soziale Unruhen drängten die politischen Entscheidungsträger in die Defensive, wodurch jeder Reformimpuls erstickt wurde. Angesichts einer Arbeitslosigkeit von 30-40 Prozent, steht die Regierung einer entrechteten und zunehmend verbitterten Bevölkerung gegenüber. Unterdessen schürt Vetternwirtschaft die Einkommensungleichheit, behindert die Entwicklung in ländlichen Gebieten und höhlt das Bildungssystem aus.  

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