埃及重生

开罗——如果宏观经济指标可以相信,埃及的经济增长近乎陷于停滞已经三年了。流入国内的外国直接投资已近枯竭,GDP增长率也从2008及2009年的7%骤降至2013年的区区2%。但我们应该相信经济指标吗?

答案既是肯定也是否定的。虽然GDP不应被视为国家经济状况的准确反映,但在埃及,该数据的确反映了2011年穆巴拉克政权垮台后整体生产力的大幅萎缩。之前曾将埃及视为地区最有前途的新兴市场之一的各大评级机构大幅降低了该国的信用评分,吓退了想进入埃及的外国投资者。不仅如此,反穆巴拉克革命还引发了大量资本外逃,导致该国货币储备降低一半还多。

坏消息还不止于此。2011年迄今已经更换了7届政府,社会动荡迫使决策者采取守势,进而扼杀了任何改革的冲动。失业率高达30%到40%,政府所面对的是权利遭到剥夺、仇恨不断滋长的民众。此外,权贵资本主义助推了收入不平等、阻碍了农村发展并且损害了教育系统。

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