مِصر تولد من جديد

القاهرة ــ إذا كانت مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي صادقة، فإن هذا يعني أن النمو الاقتصادي في مصر كاد يتوقف تماماً على مدى السنوات الثلاث الماضية. فقد نضب معين تدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر، وهبطت معدلات نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي من 7% في عامي 2008 و2009 إلى 2% فقط في عام 2013. ولكن هل المؤشرات صادقة حقا؟

الإجابة هي نعم وكلا في آن. فبرغم أن الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لا ينبغي أبداً أن يُعَد بياناً للصحة الاقتصادية لأي بلد، فإن الأرقام في مصر تعكس حقاً انهيار قدرة البلاد الإنتاجية بالكامل في السنوات التي تلت سقوط نظام حسني مبارك في عام 2011. حتى أن وكالات التصنيف الكبرى، التي اعتبرت مصر في وقت سابق واحدة من أهم الأسواق الناشئة الواعدة في المنطقة، خفضت درجات الائتمان للبلاد بشدة، الأمر الذي أدى إلى ردع المستثمرين الأجانب عن المغامرة في مصر. وعلاوة على ذلك، أدت الثورة المناهضة لمبارك إلى هروب جماعي لرؤوس الأموال، فانخفضت احتياطيات البلاد من النقد الأجنبي إلى النصف.

وهذه ليست كل الأخبار السيئة. فقد تعاقبت على البلاد سبع حكومات منذ عام 2011، وتسببت الاضطرابات الاجتماعية في دفع صناع القرار السياسي إلى اتخاذ وضع دفاعي أدى إلى خنق أي دافع إصلاحي. ومع بلوغ البطالة معدلات تتراوح بين 30% إلى 40%، فإن الحكومة تواجه شريحة كبيرة من السكان المحرومين الذين يشعرون بمرارة متزايدة. ومن ناحية أخرى، تغذي رأسمالية المحسوبية التفاوت في الدخول، وتعرقل جهود التنمية الريفية، وتؤدي إلى تآكل نظام التعليم.

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