Paul Lachine

阿拉伯宗教战争

马德里—纵观阿拉伯世界,两大历史势力之争——宗教和世俗——方兴未艾。这场战争堪与折磨欧洲数百年之久的凯撒和上帝之战相媲。阿拉伯中东的未来将取决于叙利亚的逊尼派叛军(他们有原教旨主义赞助人、沙特瓦哈比派在整个地区的支持)及其世俗的社会复兴党(Baath)政权之争、原教旨主义哈马斯和世俗的巴解组织之争、以及埃及形成于解放广场示威的青年世俗反对派与穆斯林兄弟会和极端沙拉菲派之争。

目前,阿拉伯革命已经证明了一个假设——大多数阿拉伯社会的结构决定了推翻世俗独裁免不了意味着开启了伊斯兰民主的大门。我们多次看到了这一动态。20世纪90年代初的阿尔及利亚是如此,伊斯兰救世阵线(Islamic Salvation Front)在议会选举第一轮中胜出(这导致第二轮选举被取消);2006年哈马斯在巴勒斯坦选举中获胜也是如此;还有最近的穆斯林在埃及的民主崛起和掌权。

在阿尔及利亚和埃及,世俗力量无力阻止政治伊斯兰的崛起,只有通过军事接管才能遏制。阿尔及利亚军事政变最终演变成血腥内战,据估计有超过20万人丧命。

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