Egypt na Morsi

BERLIJN – Egypte vormt het hart van de Arabische revolutie, ook al kwam de eerste vonk tot ontbranding in Tunesië. Maar Egypte – met zijn strategische ligging, stabiele grenzen, omvangrijke bevolking en oude geschiedenis – is eeuwenlang de voornaamste macht van de Arabische wereld geweest, die de beweging van de geschiedenis als geen ander heeft bepaald.  Dit impliceert dat de omverwerping van de democratisch gekozen president van Egypte, Mohammed Morsi, veel bredere repercussies zal hebben.

Was het buitenspel zetten van Morsi een klassieke contrarevolutie in de gedaante van een militaire coup? Of heeft die coup een totale machtsovername door de Moslimbroederschap voorkomen, zodat een economische ineenstorting van Egypte en een chaotische ontwikkeling in de richting van een religieuze dictatuur ternauwernood kon worden afgewend?

Niemand kan ontkennen dat wat er in Egypte is gebeurd een militaire coup was, of dat krachten uit het regime van de vroegere president Hosni Moebarak opnieuw aan de macht zijn gekomen. Maar anders dan in 2011, toen de weinige pro-westerse liberalen en de grote aantallen jongeren uit de stedelijke middenklasse tegen Moebarak in opstand kwamen, steunen dezelfde groeperingen nu de coup, waardoor er een zekere (democratische?) legitimiteit aan wordt verleend. Niettemin kan er niet zomaar voorbij worden gegaan aan de omverwerping van een democratisch gekozen regering door het leger.

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