Proteger la economía ante el riesgo

NEW HAVEN - El principio básico de la gestión del riesgo financiero es compartir. Mientras más ampliamente diversificadas estén nuestras carteras financieras, entre más personas se compartirán los inevitables riesgos y menos se verá afectada una en particular por un riesgo determinado. El ideal teórico se cumple cuando los contratos financieros distribuyen los riesgos en todo el mundo, de modo que cada uno de los miles de millones de inversores dispuestos a asumirlos es propietario de una pequeña parte y nadie está sobreexpuesto.

El caso de Japón muestra que, a pesar de la alta sofisticación de nuestros mercados financieros, aún estamos muy lejos del ideal teórico. Si se consideran los enormes riesgos que no se gestionan bien, el ámbito de las finanzas, incluso en el siglo XXI, todavía se encuentra en un estado más bien primitivo.

Un reciente estudio del Banco Mundial estima que los daños causados ​​por el triple desastre (terremoto, tsunamis y crisis nuclear) de marzo podría terminar costándole a Japón 235 mil millones dólares (sin incluir el valor de las vidas trágicamente perdidas), es decir, cerca del 4% del PIB japonés de 2010.

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