Экономике пора застраховаться

НЬЮ-ХЕЙВЕН (шт. Коннектикут, США). Основной принцип управления финансовым риском заключается в разделении рисков. Чем более диверсифицированным является наш финансовый портфель, тем больше людей делят между собой неизбежные риски, и тем меньше отдельный человек подвержен любому конкретному риску. Теоретический идеал случается, когда финансовые контракты распространяют риски по всему миру, так что каждый из миллиардов активных инвесторов владеет лишь небольшой долей, и никто не подвержен чрезмерному риску.

Случай Японии показывает, что, несмотря на нашу большую искушённость в финансовых рынках, нам ещё очень далеко до теоретического идеала. Принимая во внимание огромные, неумело управляемые риски, можно сделать вывод о том, что финансовый бизнес, даже в 21 веке, по-прежнему является довольно примитивным.

По оценкам недавнего исследования Международного банка реконструкции и развития ущерб для Японии от тройной катастрофы марта этого года (землетрясение, цунами и авария на АЭС) может, в конечном итоге, составить 235 миллиардов долларов (помимо ценности трагически прерванных человеческих жизней). Это около 4% ВВП Японии в 2010 г.

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