Volkswirtschaft, sorge selbst für deine Absicherung

NEW HAVEN – Das Grundprinzip des finanziellen Risikomanagements ist Streuung. Je breiter unsere Finanzportfolios diversifiziert sind, auf umso mehr Menschen verteilen sich die unvermeidlichen Risiken – und umso weniger ist ein Einzelner vom jeweiligen Risiko betroffen. Das theoretische Ideal tritt ein, wenn Finanzkontrakte Risiken weltweit streuen, sodass Milliarden williger Investoren jeweils einen winzigen Anteil besitzen und niemand übermäßigen Risiken ausgesetzt ist.

Einige unserer Finanzmärkte weisen zwar ein hohes Maß an Differenziertheit auf, doch im Fall von Japan zeigt sich, dass wir immer noch weit vom Ideal entfernt sind. Wenn man die enormen Risiken bedenkt, die nicht gut verwaltet werden, ist Finanzwirtschaft auch im einundzwanzigsten Jahrhundert eigentlich immer noch vergleichsweise primitiv.

Schätzungen einer unlängst von der Weltbank veröffentlichten Studie zufolge, kann die dreifache Katastrophe (Erdbeben, Tsunami und Nuklearkrise) vom März Japan letzten Endes 235 Milliarden US-Dollar kosten (der tragische Verlust von Menschenleben nicht eingeschlossen). Das sind etwa 4% des japanischen BIP im Jahr 2010.

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