Trump GOP retreat Bill Clark/Getty Images

2017年的三大惊奇

伦敦—传统上,经济专家总是在1月伊始进行新年预测(传统上,这样的预测总是不正确的)。但今年的全球环境一点都不传统,因此,似乎应该等到美国总统特朗普入主白宫再来掂量在他任内可能震动世界经济和金融市场的主要冲击。从目前的市场波动和条件看,世界可能被三大潜在变革性发展趋势搞得猝不及防。

首先,特朗普的经济政策有可能大幅提高美国的利率和通胀,远高于金融市场的预期。特朗普的当选几乎肯定结束了1981年以来35年的无通胀利率下行趋势,而这给全球经济条件和资产价格带来了重大影响。但投资者和决策者尚未信服。美联储发布的预测显示今年的升息将以四分之三个百分点为节奏进行,期货市场价格则只体现了两次如此幅度的升息。

但是,随着特朗普政策的公布,美联储可能会比就职演说前所计划的幅度更大地收紧货币政策,而不是如市场仍然预期的那样幅度更小。更重要的是,随着特朗普的政策刺激实体经济活动和通胀,长期利率——比央行设定的隔夜利率更能影响世界经济——有可能剧烈上升。

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