Comments 7

2017年的三大惊奇

Jan 30, 2017 Anatole Kaletsky

伦敦—传统上，经济专家总是在1月伊始进行新年预测（传统上，这样的预测总是不正确的）。但今年的全球环境一点都不传统，因此，似乎应该等到美国总统特朗普入主白宫再来掂量在他任内可能震动世界经济和金融市场的主要冲击。从目前的市场波动和条件看，世界可能被三大潜在变革性发展趋势搞得猝不及防。

首先，特朗普的经济政策有可能大幅提高美国的利率和通胀，远高于金融市场的预期。特朗普的当选几乎肯定结束了1981年以来35年的无通胀利率下行趋势，而这给全球经济条件和资产价格带来了重大影响。但投资者和决策者尚未信服。美联储发布的预测显示今年的升息将以四分之三个百分点为节奏进行，期货市场价格则只体现了两次如此幅度的升息。

但是，随着特朗普政策的公布，美联储可能会比就职演说前所计划的幅度更大地收紧货币政策，而不是如市场仍然预期的那样幅度更小。更重要的是，随着特朗普的政策刺激实体经济活动和通胀，长期利率——比央行设定的隔夜利率更能影响世界经济——有可能剧烈上升。

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Anatole Kaletsky

Writing for PS since 1995
54 Commentaries

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

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ron smith Feb 2, 2017

Seems well-reasoned to me. By 2017, I'll choose to think "late 17 and into 18". A Marine Le Pen election, admittedly as impossible as a trump election, would be both a wild card and an almost certainly disastrous mix with trumpian dystopia.
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Colin Doyle Feb 1, 2017

The author is ´if i want it enough, it might happen' mode. It's the China trade, which starts the fire, which makes the disruption, which shocks the markets, which makes 2017 the year of the reset of the world order. When China, Germany, Japan have to balance their trade, when trade surpluses are labelled the result of "illegal" currency manipulations, it starts the end of the ´rise of Asia' and brings turmoil in the EU. Gold prices and interest rates will be the news. You can forget about French politics. Head for the hills!
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Robert Davis Feb 1, 2017

You give Donald Trump too much credit. One would hope that under any other US Presidental outcome the US would witness rising rates and higher inflation. If not, then it is reasonable to believe the economic backdrop that limited higher inflation and rates is poor. At November 2016 Fed Rates, are you implying that under another US president, the "declining rates that began in 1981" trend would continue or remain flat?
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B Wilds Feb 1, 2017

The author is far more hopeful of a Euro-zone turn around than I. The Euro-zone has entered the post-Brexit referendum stage that is certain to hold great challenges and increased risk. In my opinion, many people have greatly discounted the test awaiting governments faced with growing opposition to expanding the control of those in Brussels. To make matters worse the recent coup attempt in Turkey has created even more problems for the troubled union.

The growing anti-globalization movement which has gained support in developed countries across the world is very strong in areas of high unemployment and many people would like the option of voting against more political power flowing to a growing power grabbing bureaucracy in Brussels. The article below delves into some of the problems the Euro-zone currently faces.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/07/euro-zone-post-brexit-is-bit-of-snake.html
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Marc Laventurier Jan 31, 2017

What a fantastic kind of analysis- too bad the Euro Disney® trademark is already taken. The future may actually be shaped in the longer term by as few as seven dwarves Trump assigns to two key american institutions in some combination, the Fed and the Supreme Court. Like Anatole, Martin Feldstein in these pages outlines a marvelous scenario where the USD strengthens according to the logic of proposed tariffs. But Trump has threatened to "renegotiate" the unpayable US debt, which could be pursued by packing the Fed with crooked doves and using both deficits and policy plus the courts to try his tiny hand at an alarming FDRish shaping of the american legal space to create domestic legislative diversions even as inflation now ascends, even in Europe.

This could fulfill the nominal pay-raised fantasy life of his white trash constituency and result in the reintroduction of the Hummer, a renaissance for struggling public golf courses and boost attendance at america's CERN, the EPCOT Center in Florida. The question is whether Trump develops as a Disney/Berlusconi or as an L. Ron Hubbard/Mussolini, and how the hell a douche d'or could get away with taking the world for such an E ticket/USD ride.
- Marc Laventurier Jan 31, 2017
  
  @David,
  Now that you mention it, I do regret leaving off the standard, currently fashionable pseudo-intellectual adverb, as in 'cognitive' white trash. Since I grew up as a very affluent and cosmopolitan faculty brat in the socialist bastion that is the Berkeley hills, and likely omitted the relevant term above because I'm hurriedly packing to travel to build my third home in one of the garden spots of Jalisco, I probably don't qualify as basura blanco, at least for economic reasons. Stylewise, consider catching Colbert's current daily monologues online - your cognition might thank you someday.
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- David Kinder Jan 31, 2017
  
  MARC, have you ever thought YOU might be white trash? Probably not! Like many pseudo-intellectuals, you seem to rely on insults and hyperbole. I watched, not heard, how the democrats obstructed Reagan for his two terms. Let's be candid! The democrat party is the socialist party in America. This is confirmed by the candidacy of Bernie Sanders for President. I never thought America would see a openly Socialist candidate get as far as Sanders in his presidential run.
  Reagan, like Trump, had many skeptics! But, he got the economy going mostly by quadrupling the national debt. If Trump can renegotiate the terms of the national debt, it would be a start to fiscal responsibility. The entire world's governments combined are $250 trillion in debt, and many countries are far worse than ours. If Trump can save us from the inevitable depression that lies ahead, he will have to shame the democrats into capitulation. Or, our worst fears will come true!
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga Jan 31, 2017

The 800 pound gorilla is the one who always gets the bananas. By the same token, and as History proves time and again, THE country that has the capacity to guarantee the safety of international trade flows is the leading country of the world, and its currency is the world's reserve currency.

Russia has developed a star wars shield against American ICBM, making those missiles (stationed in Romania) virtually useless to strike in Russian soil.

China has developed a specific missile (Donfeng series) capable of sinking US aircraft carriers. At 10 times the speed of light, the US has no capacity to intercept them.

These two major real developments, conveniently unreported by Western media, are the major game changers that will totally alter the geopolitical status quo as we know it.

Since the US can not attack Russia, and at the same time it can not defend from China, the US can no longer guarantee international trade flows.

Russia has no intention to repeat past mistakes by overburdening itself with unwinnable wars either. And China has better things to do with its time, namely fostering domestic aggregate demand. That is the situation. And for the first time in centuries, no single country will rule.

Under these circumstances, NATO, the UN, IMF, World Bank, TPP, NAFTA, et al have become totally useless institutions, as the geopolitical arena for what they were created has disappeared.

Western media pictures Trump as a bold protectionist, and they are plain wrong, although I suspect their take is just a one in a lifetime witch hunt (Trump hunt) to make him look like the (populist) scapegoat for the overwhelming mistakes incurred in US military policy between 1988-2016.

To minimize the economic consequences for the US in this new geopolitical landscape, and at the same time avoiding a major unwinnable war against China, Trump will play a wild isolationist card. Not protectionism, ladies and gentlemen.

The US will have total dominance over the American continent (latinos get ready for a rough ride), he will suck up to Russia as a friendly commodities supplier, and play a fake media charade against China. China on its side will have total dominance over Eurasia and will also use Russia as a friendly commodities supplier.

With no commodities, with no cheap labor, with a totally dysfunctional and ill conceived monetary system, with a totally obsolete military arsenal, with a demographic shock growing in plain sight, and with a Jupiterian-uber-gargatuan-sized unfunded welfare state, if there is a single certainty it is that Europe has become the loser's corner. And in due course it will balkanize itself, once more. Those fighting the tape and betting on a "more united Europe", just brace for impact.

On a more mundane level, if Trumps deregulated the banking sector (killing Dodd-Frank and other regulatory hurdles), Europe would reply by killing draconian Basel rules on banks. Southern countries (adding France to the PIIGS) would jump into a cheap hot debt bacchanal. And Germany would well "Inflation" at the ECB as if there was no tomorrow.

Once the ensuing European banking crisis would erupt, no Southern European country could be able to withstand the shock within the Union, and Target 2 standing balances will be defaulted in full. Unless an almost total predatory levy was imposed on all the financial assets of the terrified lambs.

Interest rates at 5000 (five thousand) years lows in Europe together with Germany delivering an absolute world record trade balance surplus have created what looks like the most negative risk/reward investment option in living memory. Bearing "risk-free" German Bunds would definitely keep me up at night.
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Alexander Koukoulas Jan 30, 2017

Thank you for the thoughtful commentary. Regarding your scenario for a strengthening dollar, how does this reconcile with statements by the President and others that the dollar may be too strong? In a WSJ interview (Jan 16), he is quoted as saying that the U.S. dollar is “too strong.” He added, “Our companies can’t compete with [China] now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.” Of course, a weaker dollar would also fly in the face of the idea that a border tax would be "transparent" to U.S. consumers.
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