Facebook logo beach mkhmarketing.wordpress.com/Flickr

Estancamiento secular gratis

CAMBRIDGE – Hay algo que está definitivamente descompuesto en el actual estado del capitalismo. A pesar de que las tasas de interés se encuentran en niveles bajos sin precedentes, la inversión en los países más avanzados se encuentra muy por debajo de lo que era en los años anteriores a la crisis de 2008, mientras que las tasas de empleo continúan siendo obstinadamente bajas. E incluso en el período pre crisis, la inversión no era impresionante, dado el bajo nivel de las tasas de interés que prevalecían en ese momento.

Por alguna razón, llegar a niveles de inversión que generen pleno empleo parece requerir tasas reales de interés negativas (ajustadas según la inflación), lo que equivale a decir que para que la gente invierta hay que pagarle. Pero en un mundo con inflación reducida y tasas de interés nominales iguales a cero, puede resultar imposible lograr las tasas reales de interés negativas que se requieren. Éste es el mal que Larry Summers, recordando una monografía escrita por Alvin Hansen en 1938, ha apodado “estancamiento secular”.

Las implicaciones que este estado de cosas tienen para las políticas son un ámbito abierto a debate, que aparece muy bien resumido en un libro electrónico editado por Coen Teulings y Richard Baldwin. Para los keynesianos, la respuesta reside en un política monetaria no convencional (por ejemplo, la relajación cuantitativa), un estímulo fiscal y un objetivo de tasa de inflación más elevado. Pero, como bien lo señalan Larry Summers y otros, las políticas monetarias laxas pueden desatar burbujas financieras y un estímulo fiscal prolongado puede terminar en una crisis de deuda.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now