Gli orizzonti politici della Cina si stanno chiudendo?

PECHINO – Quando, nell'ultimo trimestre del 2011, il calo della crescita degli investimenti in Cina ha subito un'accelerazione, si sono rafforzati i timori di un atterraggio duro dell'economia, soprattutto vista la riluttanza delle autorità a perseguire nuove politiche espansive. Nel maggio 2012, però, il governo ha optato per un cambiamento di rotta, con l'approvazione da parte della Commissione per lo sviluppo nazionale e le riforme di uno stanziamento di 7 trilioni di yuan (1,3 trilioni di dollari) da destinare a nuovi progetti. Questo provvedimento, insieme a due tagli dei tassi di interesse da parte della People's Bank of China (PBOC), ha assicurato la fine del rallentamento economico nel terzo trimestre del 2012.

La performance dell'economia cinese continua a seguire il modello ciclico degli ultimi due decenni. Una rapida crescita degli investimenti, sostenuta da una politica espansiva, fa salire il tasso di crescita economica. A ciò segue l'inflazione, che determina un irrigidimento a livello politico e un rallentamento della crescita. L'inflazione, tuttavia, resta elevata o tendente all'aumento, e questo rende necessaria una stretta ulteriore. Poi, l'inflazione finalmente scende, ma la crescita rallenta più del previsto per via di una capacità eccedente causata da un eccessivo investimento nella prima fase del ciclo. A questo punto, si ritorna a una politica espansiva, e il ciclo ricomincia daccapo. E l'economia, sostenuta da un aumento degli investimenti, si rimette in moto.

Pertanto, l'accelerazione della crescita economica dal terzo trimestre del 2012 non è giunta a sorpresa. Avendo il governo mantenuto un margine per esercitare una politica monetaria espansiva e/o fiscale, la ripresa economica era solo una questione di tempo.

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