La Realidad Económica Contraataca

Casi todos los días nos enteramos de otro avaricioso ejecutivo corporativo en jefe de Estados Unidos (EEUU) que conspira con contadores, abogados y banqueros de inversión para defraudar al público inversionista. Pero más allá de los escándalos, el público debería estar más al tanto de la naturaleza errática de los mercados financieros actuales. Las tasas de cambio y los precios del mercado accionario se desvían enormemente de los valores fundamentales a largo plazo, lo que puede causar quebrantos mayúsculos en la economía real de los trabajos, la producción y la inversión. Pero aún así, los analistas financieros que discuten acerca de tales tendencias en los medios no han sido capaces de valorarlas de forma realista.

Tomemos el caso del dólar estadounidense, cuyo valor frente al euro está cayendo. Desde mitades de la década de 1990 hasta muy recientemente, el dólar se ganó gran terreno frente a las monedas europeas. Cuando se introdujo el Euro en enero de 1999, el cambio era de $1.17. Desde entonces perdió valor constantemente, tocando fondo cerca de los $0.83, antes de escalar de vuelta en los últimos días hasta casi estar en paridad con el dólar.

Para los economistas académicos, la reciente alza del Euro no es una sorpresa. Las tasas de cambio tienden a volver a los valores promedio de largo plazo después de sufrir largas desviaciones. Entonces, la enorme fortaleza que el dólar tuvo en los últimos años implicaba un eventual retorno. Ese retorno se está dando ahora.

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