Die wirtschaftliche Realität schlägt zurück

Beinahe jeden Tag hören wir von einem weiteren habgierigen Unternehmenschef in den USA, der mit Buchhaltern, Anwälten und Investment Bankern gemeinsame Sache gemacht hat, um das Anlagepublikum zu betrügen. Ganz abgesehen von den Skandalen, sollte sich die Öffentlichkeit stärker der unberechenbaren Natur der heutigen Finanzmärkte bewusst sein. Wechsel- und Aktienkurse weichen enorm von langfristigen grundlegenden Wirtschaftswerten ab, was in der realen Wirtschaft der Arbeitsplätze, Produktion und Investitionen schwerwiegende Störungen verursachen kann. Die Analysten diskutieren diese Trends in den Medien und haben sie dennoch nicht realistisch eingeschätzt.

Nehmen wir beispielsweise den US-Dollar, dessen Wert gegenüber dem Euro jetzt deutlich sinkt. Seit Mitte der 90er Jahre bis vor kurzem, hat es eine deutliche Verteuerung des Dollar gegenüber den europäischen Währungen gegeben. Als im Januar 1999 der Euro eingeführt wurde, kostete er 1,17 Dollar. Danach verlor er bis zum Tiefstand von ungefähr 0,83 Dollar stetig an Wert, bis er in den vergangenen Tagen beinahe Parität zum Dollar erreichte.

Für ausgebildete Wirtschaftswissenschaftler ist der jüngste Euro-Anstieg nicht überraschend. Wechselkurse neigen dazu, in Folge von großen Abweichungen zu langfristigen Durchschnittswerten zurückzukehren. Demnach hat die enorme Stärke des Dollars während der vergangenen Jahre eine letztendliche Umkehr bereits andeuten lassen. Diese Umkehr findet jetzt statt.

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