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2019年经济前景喜忧参半

纽约—继2017年全球协同经济扩张后,我们在2018年迎来了异质增长,除了美国之外的大部分国家开始经历减速。对美国通货膨胀、美联储政策计划、贸易战的发展、意大利预算和债务乱象、中国减速以及新兴市场脆弱性的担心,导致年底全球股市大幅下跌。

2019年伊始的一个好消息是爆发全面全球衰退的风险很小。坏消息是我们正在步入一个全球协同减速之年;大部分地区的增长将向潜在水平下降——有的甚至将下降到潜在水平之下。

诚然,2019年一开年,风险资产(美国和全球股市)就在2018年四季度的惨状的基础上开始大反弹。当时,关于美联储生息以及中国和美国增长的担忧冲击了许多市场。自此以来,美联储再度转向鸽派,美国保持了稳定的增长,中国宏观经济宽松也表现出遏制减速的憧憬。

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