Un año de divergencia

LAGUNA BEACH – En el año próximo, el de la “divergencia” será un importante tema económico mundial, aplicado a tendencias, políticas y resultados económicos. Al avanzar el año, esas divergencias llegarán a ser cada vez más difíciles de conciliar, por lo que las autoridades se encontrarán ante una disyuntiva: superar los obstáculos que han impedido hasta ahora la adopción de medidas eficaces o correr el peligro de permitir que se desestabilicen sus economías.

La economía mundial de múltiples velocidades estará dominada por cuatro grupos de países. El primero, encabezado por los Estados Unidos, experimentará una continua mejora de sus resultados económicos. Sus mercados laborales se volverán más fuertes, con una creación de empleo que irá acompañada de una recuperación de los salarios. Los beneficios del crecimiento económico estarán distribuidos de forma menos desigual que en los últimos años, aunque una parte desproporcionada seguirá correspondiendo a los que ya tienen una situación mejor.

El segundo grupo, encabezado por China, se estabilizará con tasas de crecimiento menores que las medias recientes y sin precedentes y al mismo tiempo seguirá madurando estructuralmente. Reorientarán gradualmente sus modelos de crecimiento para hacerlos más sostenibles, empeño que algunos episodios ocasionales de inestabilidad de los mercados financieros mundiales sacudirán, pero no desbaratarán, y se esforzarán por profundizar sus mercados internos, mejorar sus marcos reglamentadores, fortalecer el sector privado y ampliar el alcance de la versión económica basada en el mercado.

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