2015, année de divergence

LAGUNA BEACH – Au cours de l'année prochaine, la "divergence" sera un thème majeur des tendances, des politiques et des performances économiques. Plus l'année s'avancera, plus ces divergences seront difficiles à concilier, ce qui laissera les dirigeants politiques devant un choix : soit surmonter les obstacles qui jusqu'à présent les empêchent d'agir, soit risquer de voir leur économie déstabilisée.

L'économie mondiale qui est maintenant à plusieurs vitesses sera dominée par quatre groupes de pays. Le premier, avec les Etats-Unis à sa tête, va continuer à améliorer ses performances économiques. Le marché du travail des pays de ce groupe va se renforcer, avec la création d'emplois, accompagnée d'une remontée des salaires. Les fruits de la croissance économique seront moins inéquitablement répartis que lors des années précédentes, mais toujours de manière excessive au bénéfice des plus riches.

Conduits par la Chine, les pays du deuxième groupe se stabiliseront à des taux de croissance moins élevés que ces dernières années, tout en continuant à évoluer vers une maturité structurelle. Ils vont peu à peu réorienter leur modèle de croissance pour qu'elle soit plus durable - ce qui pourra entraîner des phases d'instabilité des marchés financiers mondiaux, sans provoquer toutefois de véritable crise. Ils approfondiront leurs marchés intérieurs, amélioreront leur cadre réglementaire, accorderont une marge de manoeuvre plus importante au secteur privé et élargiront le champ de leur politique économique basée sur le marché.

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