分化之年

拉古娜海滩—在即将到来的明年,“分化”一词将成为全球经济主题,可以适用于经济趋势、政策和表现。随着明年的临近,这些分化之势将越来越难以调和,让决策者面临一个选择:克服目前阻碍有效行动的障碍,或放任经济陷入动荡。

多速的全球经济将由四组国家主导。第一组以美国为首,经济表现将继续改善。它们的劳动力市场将更加强劲,工资复苏伴随就业创造。经济增长的好处的分配将不会像过去几年那样不平等,尽管已经获得好处的人还将拿走大部分好处。

第二组国家以中国为首,将稳定在比最近的历史平均水平更低的增长水平上,同时在结构上继续趋于成熟。它们的经济模式将变得更加可持续——间发的全球金融市场动荡会干扰这一努力但不会扼杀它们。它们还将致力于深化内部市场,改善监管框架,加强私人部门实力,扩大基于市场的经济管理范围。

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