分化之年

拉古娜海滩—在即将到来的明年,“分化”一词将成为全球经济主题,可以适用于经济趋势、政策和表现。随着明年的临近,这些分化之势将越来越难以调和,让决策者面临一个选择:克服目前阻碍有效行动的障碍,或放任经济陷入动荡。

多速的全球经济将由四组国家主导。第一组以美国为首,经济表现将继续改善。它们的劳动力市场将更加强劲,工资复苏伴随就业创造。经济增长的好处的分配将不会像过去几年那样不平等,尽管已经获得好处的人还将拿走大部分好处。

第二组国家以中国为首,将稳定在比最近的历史平均水平更低的增长水平上,同时在结构上继续趋于成熟。它们的经济模式将变得更加可持续——间发的全球金融市场动荡会干扰这一努力但不会扼杀它们。它们还将致力于深化内部市场,改善监管框架,加强私人部门实力,扩大基于市场的经济管理范围。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles from our archive every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Bl3kcTy/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.