building blocks Myxi/Flickr

摆对经济模型的位置

伯克利—决策者向经济学家讨教时,他们期待获得基于科学的建议,而不是学术流派主义或政治预设。毕竟,他们所实施的政策会对真实的人民产生真实的影响。然而不幸的是,可靠的科学并不总是推动经济分析和政策建议背后的力量。

纽约大学的保罗·罗默(Paul M. Romer)最近批评了他所谓的现代经济学的“数学性”,认为经济学家应该采取措施排除这个沉闷科学中的学术流派主义和政治学。罗默的观点十分契合他所属领域的一场未完的争论——思想在促进经济增长中的作用。

罗默的主要担忧似乎是一些经济学家有一种倾向,将对于特定理论的真理称为对于一切理论的真理,因此适合真实世界。作为这种倾向的一个例子,罗默援引了芝加哥大学经济学家罗伯特·卢卡斯(Robert Lucas)的工作。他在2009年的论文《思想和增长》(Ideas and Growth)中认为,书本或蓝图在促进增长中毫无用处。“一些知识可以‘包含在’书本、蓝图、机器和其他实物资本中,并且我们知道如何将资本引入增长模型,”卢卡斯说,“但我们也知道这样做本身并不能提供持续增长的引擎。”

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