“半个面包”增长

米兰—在经济增长萎靡的时期,全球各国都在尝试构思和实施刺激和维持复苏的战略。这里的关键词是战略:要想成功,决策者必须保证这些措施能开放经济、提振公共投资、加强宏观经济稳定、增加市场恢复力、资源配置激励以合理且完整的方案实施。只追求其中几个目标所产生的结果会大大下降。

中国就是一个绝佳的例子。1978年邓小平启动“改革开放”政策之前,中国公共部门投资相对较高。但中央计划经济缺少市场激励,也基本对全球经济的主要商品、投资和技术市场封闭。结果,公共投资回报十分平庸,中国经济表现也十分低下。

中国的经济转型起始于20世纪80年代在农业部门中引入市场激励。随后是逐渐向全球经济开放的过程,这一过程在20世纪90年代有所加速。经济增长大踏步向前,公共投资回报也大幅上升,改革是时候不久年GDP增长率就达到了9%以上。

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