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La tendance économique est notre alliée

BERKELEY – Depuis quelque temps, la situation du monde est synonyme de profond désenchantement. De sombres forces associées au fanatisme et à une foi meurtrière sont en effet de retour – forces que nous autres Occidentaux pensions pour la plupart éteintes depuis 1750. Elles sont par ailleurs rejointes et renforcées par un nationalisme, une intolérance et un racisme que nous pensions disparus dans les ruines de Berlin en 1945.

La croissance économique est elle aussi profondément décevante depuis 2008. Aucun scénario raisonnable ne permet d'espérer un monde meilleur pour les quelque cinq prochaines années. De même, l'incapacité des institutions internationales à produire une prospérité croissante vient mettre à mal cette confiance et cette espérance qui, en des temps plus cléments, auraient permis de neutraliser les mentalités destructrices de notre époque.

Il est compréhensible que le pessimisme gagne aujourd'hui facilement les esprits – mais peut-être trop facilement. En effet, une vision inverse, enthousiaste et optimiste est possible : si nous songeons à la croissance économique mondiale non pas à un horizon de seulement cinq ans, mais sur les 30 à 60 prochaines années, le tableau apparaît beaucoup plus favorable.

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