El imperativo del crecimiento para China

BEIJING – A lo largo de todo el décimo octavo congreso del Partido Comunista Chino, recién concluido, pantallas de televisión omnipresentes en trenes y estaciones de metro transmitieron en directo las sesiones de la asamblea china. Sin embargo, la atareada población de Beijing no parecía prestar demasiada atención: para ella, no tenía nada de particular.

La indiferencia del público chino ante la ceremoniosa transición del poder de su país nada tiene de extraño. Todas las decisiones transcendentales estaban adoptadas mucho antes del congreso, a puerta cerrada, con muy pocas aportaciones del exterior. Sin embargo, se espera de forma generalizada que esa transición, aparentemente perfecta, dé paso a un decenio complejo y potencialmente difícil para China… y para el resto del mundo.

China se encuentra en un momento decisivo. Con más de 100 millones de personas que aún no superan el umbral oficial de la pobreza y una renta por habitante que apenas supera los 6.000 dólares en términos nominales, hay que mantener un crecimiento sólido. El Presidente saliente, Hu Jintao, indicó que el PIB total de China y la renta por habitante debía duplicarse de aquí a 2020, lo que requerirá un crecimiento anual del 7,5 por ciento por término medio. ¿Es viable?

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