Chine : le défi de la croissance

PEKIN – De nombreux écrans dans les stations de train et de métro ont diffusé en direct et en continu les images de l’assemblée chinoise du tout dernier 18ème Congrès du Parti Communiste. Cependant, le peuple affairé de Pékin n’a pas semblé y porter beaucoup d’intérêt particulier : en ce qui les concerne, la vie continue, comme d’habitude.

L’indifférence des Chinois pour la transition cérémoniale du pouvoir du pays n’est pas vraiment surprenante. Toutes les décisions majeures ont été prises très en amont du Congrès, dans les antichambres du pouvoir, avec peu de contribution extérieure. On s’attend pourtant à ce que cette transition en apparence sans heurts n’ouvre la voie à une décennie complexe et potentiellement difficile pour la Chine – et pour le reste du monde.

La Chine se trouve à un tournant de son histoire. Avec plus de 100 millions de Chinois vivant sous le seuil officiel de pauvreté et un revenu par habitant actuellement à peine supérieur à 6,000 dollars en valeur nominale, une croissance économique solide doit être maintenue. Le président sortant Hu Jintao a déclaré que le PIB total de la Chine et le revenu par habitant devrait doubler d’ici 2020, ce qui nécessitera une croissance annuelle de l’ordre de 7,5%. Est-ce possible ?

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