Růstová výzva pro Čínu

PEKING – Během právě ukončeného 18. sjezdu čínské komunistické strany všudypřítomné televizní obrazovky ve vlacích a ve stanicích metra vysílaly živé zpravodajství o tomto shromáždění. Zaneprázdnění obyvatelé Pekingu však nejevili známky hlubšího zájmu: podle nich nešlo o nic mimořádného.

Lhostejnost čínské veřejnosti vůči slavnostnímu předání moci v jejich zemi není nijak překvapivá. Všechna podstatná rozhodnutí se činí před sjezdem, za zavřenými dveřmi, s nepatrným vlivem kohokoli zvenčí. Všeobecně se však očekává, že tato zdánlivě zcela plynulá obměna přinese Číně – a okolnímu světu – komplikované a potenciálně náročné desetiletí.

Čína je na rozcestí. Vzhledem k tomu, že víc než 100 milionů lidí je stále pod oficiální hranicí chudoby a příjem na hlavu aktuálně v nominálních hodnotách jen těsně převyšuje 6000 dolarů, je zapotřebí zachovat robustní hospodářský růst. Odcházející prezident Chu Ťin-tchao naznačil, že do roku 2020 by se úhrnný čínský HDP a příjem na hlavu měl zdvojnásobit, což bude vyžadovat průměrné 7,5% roční tempo růstu. Je to zvladatelné?

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