La complicada política de la divergencia económica

LAGUNA BEACH – El mundo se caracteriza cada vez más por la divergencia: en los resultados económicos, en la política monetaria y, por tanto, en los mercados financieros. La divergencia mundial ya ha contribuido a la inestabilidad de los mercados de valores, a descensos sin precedentes de los rendimientos de los bonos estatales de las economías avanzadas y a unos movimientos desmedidos de las divisas. Y esa tendencia no remite, sino que ejerce una presión cada vez mayor en unos sistemas políticos ya agobiados.

Podemos situar en cuatro categorías las economías sistémicamente importantes del mundo. El primer grupo comprende países como la India y los Estados Unidos, donde la recuperación está ampliándose y permitiéndoles superar los desequilibrios financieros. El segundo grupo está ejemplificado por China, que está logrando un aterrizaje suave en una vía de crecimiento que, aunque más lento que en los últimos años, sigue siendo suficiente para apoyar los avances continuos hacia la categoría de renta elevada y estabilidad financiera.

El tercer grupo comprende economías –como, por ejemplo, el Brasil, varios países de la zona del euro y el Japón– que no están creciendo con la suficiente rapidez y afrontan riesgos de empeoramiento y, por último, el cuarto grupo se compone de comodines financieros como Grecia y Rusia: países que podrían lograr restablecer el crecimiento y la estabilidad financiera, pero igual de fácilmente podrían implosionar y enviar ondas de choque por toda Europa y más allá.

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