经济分歧中的政治混乱

拉古纳海滩——无论在经济表现、货币政策还是金融市场方面,世界经济已经尽显差异。全球差异已导致股市波动、发达国家政府债券收益率史无前例的下降及汇率的波动走势。而且上述趋势并无减弱迹象,这给本已紧张的政治制度带来了越来越大的压力。

全世界最重要的经济体可以笼统归为四大类。第一类包括印美等国,经济全面复苏令其得以摆脱金融失衡的束缚。第二类则以中国为代表,那里正在实现经济增长软着陆,尽管增长速度低于前些年,但仍足以支撑其向高收入和金融稳定实现持续过渡。

第三类包括巴西、某些欧元区国家和日本等经济体,它们的增长速度放缓,面临着经济下行压力。最后,希腊和俄罗斯等经济和金融动荡国被划为第四类——上述国家有可能恢复经济增长和金融稳定,但同样有可能陷入崩溃,冲击欧洲和其他地区。

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