O arco da prosperidade do Médio Oriente

PRINCETON – À medida que o Egipto treme à beira da guerra civil, com níveis alarmantes de violência e divisões endurecidas por todos os lados, é difícil encontrar um local verdadeiramente prometedor em qualquer lugar do Médio Oriente ou do Norte de África. A agonia da Síria continua inabalável; os ataques sectários no Iraque estão a tornar-se mais frequentes e mortíferos; as correntes da frágil paz do Líbano estão a desgastar-se; a Jordânia está inundada de refugiados; as milícias da Líbia correm desenfreadas e distorcem a sua política; a Tunísia enfrenta uma crise política; e a estrela da Turquia, como a personificação da democracia islâmica, ficou menos brilhante.

No entanto, mesmo com esta ladainha de problemas, o secretário de Estado dos EUA, John Kerry, decidiu focar-se em Israel e na Palestina. A sua justificação – “se não for agora, nunca mais é” – é quase verdade. Mas há uma outra, igualmente forte (embora muitas vezes esquecida) justificação: o enorme potencial de uma zona económica, Israel-Palestina-Jordânia, que iria conduzir ao crescimento e ao desenvolvimento de toda a região.

Nas palavras imortais de James Carville, o gestor da campanha de Bill Clinton, em 1992: “É a economia, estúpido”. O triste insucesso das economias do Médio Oriente e do Norte de África de distribuírem a paz que os seus povos querem desesperadamente é um factor constante que empurra o povo para as ruas. Ele não é o único factor, mas o aumento dos preços dos alimentos ajudou a espalhar o fervor revolucionário de um pequeno grupo de activistas, grande parte da população do Egipto, em 2011, e novamente em Junho deste ano, quando o ressentimento mais frequente com o ex-presidente Mohamed Morsi não tem a ver com a sua ideologia, mas sim com a sua indiferença para com as necessidades comuns dos egípcios.

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