elderly running Jim West/ZumaPress

Masa Depan yang Menua

MUNICH – Penuaan yang dialami masyarakat kita merupakan salah satu kisah sukses terbesar di abad ke-20. Usia lebih dari tiga dekade telah ditambahkan ke dalam kehidupan ratusan juta penduduk selam\a seratus tahun terakhir. Hal ini merupakan pencapaian yang layak dirayakan; akan tetapi kita perlu menyadari bahwa seiring dengan bertambahnya umur panjang akan timbul konsekuensi ekonomi jangka panjang yang signifikan – dan banyak masyarakat mengalami penuaan dengan cepat.

Tahun lalu OECD memberikan peringatan bahwa kita sedang mengalami penuaan dengan laju yang tidak pernah terjadi sebelumnya dan kondisi ini dapat menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahunan global dari rata-rata 3,6% di dekade ini menjadi 2,4% di tahun 2050 hingga 2060. Negara-negara OECD khususnya akan mengalami double demographic shock. Tidak hanya masyarakatnya akan menjadi tua dengan cepat; semakin berkurangnya kesenjangan pendapatan antara negara-negara maju dengan negara-negara berkembang menciptakan kemungkinan menurunnya aliran perpindahan penduduk, menyusutkan jumlah tenaga kerja sebesar 20% di eurozone dan 15% di Amerika Serikat.

Peneliti demografi membagi negara ke dalam empat kategori, berdasarkan jumlah populasi di atas usia 65 tahun: young (kurang dari 7% penduduk berusia 65 tahun atau lebih), aging (7-13%), aged (14-20%), dan super-aged (lebih dari 20%). Kini, hanya tiga negara – Jerman (21%), Italia (22%) dan Jepang (26%) – termasuk kategori masyarakat super-aged. Dalam lima tahun ke depan, ketiga negara ini akan diikuti oleh Bulgaria, Finlandia, Yunani dan Portugal. Dalam satu dekade berikutnya, Eropa pun akan semakin mengalami penuaan, bersama dengan 17 negara lainnya seperti Austria, Perancis, Swedia, dan Britania Raya yang diperkirakan akan menjadi super-aged, serta Kanada, Kuba dan Korea Selatan.

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