elderly running Jim West/ZumaPress

未来是老年人的

慕尼黑——社会老龄化是二十世纪最伟大的成就之一。一百年来亿万人的寿命已经延长了超过三十年之多。这一成就非常值得庆祝;但我们也必须牢记寿命延长会带来显著的长期经济后果——许多社会老龄化将达到创纪录的速度。

去年经合组织警告世界正以前所未有的速度实现老龄化,而这可能造成全球年经济增长率从近十年的平均3.6%放缓至2050到2060年的约2.4%。尤其经合组织国家将遭受双重人口冲击。不仅其自身社会将快速老龄化;富裕国家和新兴经济体之间收入差距日渐收窄还有可能放缓移民流动,导致美国劳动力缩减15%、欧元区缩减20%。

人口研究员按照65岁以上人口比例将国家分为四类:年轻(65岁或以上人口小于7%)、趋向老龄化(7-13%)、老龄化(14-20%)和超级老龄化(超过21%)。目前仅有三国——德国(21%)、意大利(22%)和日本(26%)——被划为超级老龄化社会。预计保加利亚、芬兰、希腊和葡萄牙将在未来五年加入到这一行列。今后十年欧洲将继续老龄化进程,包括奥地利、法国、瑞典和英国等其他17个国家有望与加拿大、古巴和韩国一道成为超级老龄化社会。

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