Der neue makroökonomische Realismus der EZB

NEW YORK – Die Europäische Zentralbank hat endlich eine Politik der quantitativen Lockerung eingeleitet. Die zentrale Frage ist in dieser Phase, ob Deutschland der EZB den erforderlichen Spielraum einräumen wird, um diese geldpolitische Expansion mit ausreicher Kühnheit durchzuführen.

Auch wenn die quantitative Lockerung kein langfristiges Wachstum hervorrufen kann, kann sie eine Menge dafür tun, die fortdauernde Rezession zu beenden, die die Eurozone seit 2008 umklammert hält. Die Rekordkurse in dieser Woche an den Aktienmärkten in Europa in Erwartung der quantitativen Lockerung sind nicht nur ein Anzeichen für wachsende Zuversicht, sondern zugleich ein direkter Kanal, durch den eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik Investitionen und Verbrauch stärken kann.

Trotzdem bezweifeln einige Beobachter – wie etwa Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman oder der frühere US-Finanzminister Larry Summers – weiterhin, dass die quantitative Lockerung wirklich effektiv sein kann. Krugman hat kürzlich geäußert, ein „deflationärer Vortex“ ziehe große Teile der Weltwirtschaft in die Tiefe; fallende Preise würden eine Abwärtsspirale bei der Nachfrage in Gang setzen, aus der es kein Entrinnen gäbe. Die Weltbank und der Internationale Währungsfonds scheinen dem zuzustimmen, denn beide haben kürzlich ihre Wachstumsprognosen leicht gesenkt.

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