欧洲央行的新宏观经济现实主义

纽约—欧洲央行终于启动了量化宽松(QE)政策。现阶段的关键问题是德国是否会给予欧洲央行所需要的方便,使其以足够的力度实施货币扩张。

尽管 QE不能带来长期增长,但它大大有利于结束自2008年以来让欧元区饱受折磨的衰退。本周,在QE预期下,欧洲股市创出历史新高,这不但表明市场信心增加,也是货币宽松提振投资和消费的直接渠道。

但一些观察家,如诺贝尔奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)和前美国财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯(Larry Summers),依然质疑QE是否真的有用。克鲁格曼最近表示,一个“通缩漩涡”正在拖累世界经济大部,下跌的物价导致了无法摆脱的需求下降螺旋。世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)似乎也同意这一点,两家机构最近又都再度调低了增长预期。

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