Colocar a deflação em primeiro lugar

CAMBRIDGE – o Banco Central Europeu está a caminhar, hesitante mas inevitavelmente, em direcção à flexibilização quantitativa. A ameaça da deflação – e a ineficácia das suas medidas anteriores – deixa-o sem escolha. A questão é se o BCE será capaz de caminhar depressa o suficiente.

O BCE já tentou aliviar as condições de crédito através da compra de instrumentos de dívida titularizados de alta qualidade. Comprou títulos cobertos por fluxos de rendimentos de hipotecas do sector privado, as tão conhecidas obrigações hipotecárias, e deixou flutuar a ideia de comprar títulos corporativos e obrigações multilaterais emitidos pelo Banco Europeu de Investimento.

Mas não há dúvida de que isto não será suficiente. As ofertas de títulos privados são limitadas, reflectindo o domínio dos empréstimos bancários na Europa e o sentimento de recessão nos mercados de securitização. Aumentar o fornecimento de tais títulos levará tempo, algo que os governantes europeus não possuem.

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