Ayudar al BCE a cruzar el Rubicón

PARÍS – Se espera que las autoridades monetarias de la eurozona hagan historia cuando se reúnan en la próxima reunión del Banco Central Europeo el 22 de enero para fijar las próximas políticas a seguir. Los observadores anticipan que el presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, y sus colegas finalmente cruzarán el Rubicón y anunciarán el lanzamiento de un programa de gran escala de alivio cuantitativo (QE por su sigla en inglés) -en otras palabras, compras de alto volumen de bonos del gobierno-. Si bien el BCE se ha resistido al QE durante más de cinco años, inclusive cuando otros bancos centrales importantes lo adoptaron, el miembro de la Junta Ejecutiva Benoît Coeuré ya lo calificó como la "opción de base".

A simple vista, el BCE tiene muchas razones para lanzar el QE. Durante dos años, la inflación nunca alcanzó el objetivo del 2%. En noviembre, el crecimiento anual de precios fue de apenas 0,3%, mientras que el reciente colapso de los precios del petróleo generará una mayor presión bajista en los próximos meses. Más importante aún, las expectativas de inflación comenzaron a desanclar: los pronosticadores y los inversores esperan que el incumplimiento del objetivo persista en el mediano plazo.

La baja inflación ya es un obstáculo serio para la recuperación y el reequilibrio de la economía de la eurozona. La deflación declarada sería una amenaza incluso más peligrosa.

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