Aiutare la BCE ad Attraversare il Rubicone

PARIGI – Ci si aspetta che i funzionari monetari dell’Eurozona “facciano la storia” il 22 gennaio, giorno in cui si incontreranno in occasione della prossima riunione per la definizione delle politiche della Banca Centrale Europea. Gli osservatori prevedono che il presidente della BCE Mario Draghi ed i suoi colleghi finalmente attraverseranno il Rubicone e annunceranno l’avvio di un programma di quantitative easing (QE) su vasta scala - in altre parole, un programma di acquisto di titoli di Stato in grande quantità. Benché la BCE si sia opposta alla politica di QE per più di cinque anni, laddove le altre principali banche centrali l’avevano adottata, il membro del Comitato Esecutivo Benoît Coeuré l’ha già definita l’ “opzione di base”.

A prima vista, la BCE ha molti motivi per avviare un programma di QE. Per due anni, l’inflazione non è mai riuscita a raggiungere l’obiettivo del 2%. Nel mese di novembre, la crescita annuale dei prezzi è stata solo dello 0,3%, mentre, nei prossimi mesi, il recente crollo dei prezzi del petrolio produrrà ulteriori pressioni al ribasso. Cosa ancora più importante, le aspettative di inflazione hanno iniziato a sganciarsi: gli analisti e gli investitori si aspettano che, nel medio termine, permangano risultati inferiori agli obiettivi.

Una bassa inflazione rappresenta già un grave ostacolo alla ripresa economica e al riequilibrio all’interno della zona euro. Una deflazione conclamata costituirebbe una minaccia ancora più pericolosa.

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