帮助欧洲央行下定决心

发自巴黎——在外界的预期中,欧元区货币政策官员将在1月22日召开的欧洲中央银行下一轮政策制定会议上齐聚一堂,共同创造一段历史。观察家们预计欧洲央行主席马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)及其同僚将最终下定决心,宣布启动一项大规模量化宽松政策——换言之,就是大规模采购各国政府债券。虽然欧洲央行已经抵制了量化宽松政策达五年之久,即便其他各主要国家央行都采取了这一政策,但欧洲央行执行委员会成员伯努瓦·科赫(Benoît Coeuré)已经将其称之为“基准选项”

在表面上看,欧洲央行拥有许多启动量化宽松的理由。近两年以来,欧元区的通胀一直未能达到2%的目标。在十一月,年度价格增幅为0.3%,而最近的油价大跌将在未来几个月带来更进一步的下行压力。而更重要的是通胀预期已经开始动摇。经济预测专家和投资者们都预期这种无法达到目标的状况将一直维持到中期。

低通胀已经成为了经济复苏及欧元区内部经济重新调整的一大严重阻碍。而彻底的通缩则会成为更加严重的威胁。

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