L'Inde au risque d'Ebola

NEW DELHI – Hormis ceux d'Afrique de l'Ouest, quels sont les pays les plus exposés à une épidémie du virus d'Ebola ? La plupart des épidémiologistes estiment que le risque est faible pour le monde développé en raison des mesures de quarantaine et des procédures de suivi, et qu'il devrait en être de même pour les pays en développement à faible densité de population. Par contre les pays dont la population est très dense et qui ne disposent pas de mécanismes de lutte appropriés sont très exposés.

Si l'épidémie d'Ebola s'étend, les conséquences pourraient être très lourdes, avant tout pour l'Inde, avec ses villes surpeuplées, ses infrastructures sanitaires insuffisantes et ses nombreux expatriés (en nombre d'émigrés l'Inde arrive en deuxième place au niveau mondial). Depuis le siècle dernier l'Inde entretient des relations très étroites avec l'Afrique de l'Ouest où vivent prés de 50 000 Indiens ou personnes d'origine indienne.

Enormément de gens prennent chaque jour l'avion entre l'Afrique de l'Ouest (Accra, Lagos, Freetown, Monrovia et Abidjan) et l'Inde (New Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta et Madras) en passant par le Moyen-Orient ou l'Europe. Le contrôle des passagers sortants est en place dans tous les aéroports internationaux des régions affectées,  mais du fait de la période d'incubation du virus (en moyenne 8 jours, mais elle peut s'étendre à 3 semaines), il est possible qu'un passager infecté échappe à la détection.

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