Paul Lachine

Азиатские лунатики

СЕУЛ – Нравится это или нет политикам Восточной Азии и ученым мужам, нынешние международные отношения в регионе больше похожи на европейскую политику девятнадцатого века баланса силы, чем стабильной Европы сегодня. Мы видим растущий национализм в Восточной Азии, территориальные споры, а также отсутствие эффективных институциональных механизмов для налаживания сотрудничества в сфере безопасности. В то время как экономическая взаимозависимость между Китаем, Японией, Южной Кореей и членами Ассоциации государств Юго-Восточной Азии продолжает углубляться, их дипломатические отношения также обременены соперничеством и недоверием, как и отношения между европейскими странами в десятилетия до первой мировой войны.

Общей чертой тогда и сейчас является смещение власти. В то время относительная мощь Великобритании была в упадке, а в Германии росла со времени ее объединения в 1871 году.

Точно так же, по крайней мере с точки зрения экономической, если не военной мощи, в Соединенных Штатах и Японии, похоже, начался процесс упадка относительно Китая. Конечно, этот процесс не является необратимым: эффективное политическое руководство и успешное проведение внутренних реформ в США и Японии, вместе с отказом Китая управлять политическим давлением снизу, еще может остановить это, казалось бы, неумолимое смещение власти.

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