Paul Lachine

亚洲梦游者

首尔—不管东亚政治家和专家学者是否喜欢,该地区最近的国际关系与19世纪欧洲的实力平衡政治,而不是与当下欧洲的稳定状态更为相似。东亚民族主义和领土纠纷正在升级,同时也缺少有效的制度性机制促成安全合作。尽管中国、日本、韩国和东盟国家的经济联系仍在不断加深,但它们的外交关系充满了敌意和怀疑,一如一战前数十年间欧洲各国。

彼时和今日的一大共同点是实力变迁。彼时,英国的相对实力在衰落,而德国自1871年统一后开始崛起。

类似地,至少在经济实力上(军事姑且不论),美国和日本似乎已经开始了相对中国的衰落过程。当然,这一过程并不是不可逆的。若美国和日本能出现有效的政治领导和成功的民主改革,而中国不能有效管理自下而上的政治压力,则有可能中止这一看似势不可挡的实力变迁之势。

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