El año de las apuestas conservadoras

NUEVA YORK – La subida de los mercados mundiales de acciones que se inició en julio está perdiendo fuelle ahora, cosa que no es de extrañar: al no haber habido mejora importante alguna en las perspectivas de crecimiento ni en las economías avanzadas ni en las grandes economías en ascenso, la recuperación no dejó en ningún momento de parecer que  carecía de fuste. Si acaso, la corrección podría haberse producido antes, en vista de los decepcionantes datos macroeconómicos de los últimos meses.

Comenzando por los países avanzados, la recesión de la zona del euro se ha propagado desde la periferia hasta el centro, al entrar en recesión Francia y afrontar Alemania una doble mala racha de crecimiento desacelerado en un importante mercado de exportación (China/Asia) y una clara contracción en otros (Europa meridional). El crecimiento económico en los Estados Unidos ha seguido anémico, al ascender a 1,5-2 por ciento durante la mayor parte del año, y el  Japón está deslizándose a una nueva recesión. El Reino Unido ya ha padecido, como la zona del euro, una doble recesión y ahora incluso los grandes exportadores de productos básicos –el Canadá, los países nórdicos y Australia– están desacelerándose con los vientos contrarios que llegan de los EE.UU., Europa y China.

Entretanto, las economías con mercados en ascenso –incluidas todas las de los BRIC (el Brasil, Rusia, la India y China) y otros participantes importantes como la Argentina, Turquía y Sudáfrica– también se desaceleraron en 2012. La desaceleración de China puede haberse estabilizado durante unos trimestres, en vista de la última inyección fiscal, monetaria y crediticia del Gobierno, pero ese estímulo no hará otra cosa que perpetuar el insostenible modelo de crecimiento del país, basado en demasiada inversión fija y ahorro y demasiado poco consumo privado.

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