L’année des paris prudents

NEW YORK – La reprise des marchés boursiers mondiaux, qui a débuté en juillet dernier, est maintenant en perte de vitesse. Ce n'est pas surprenant : en l’absence d’amélioration significative des perspectives de croissance, que ce soit dans les économies avancées ou dans les principales économies émergentes, le redressement n’a jamais semblé tout à fait crédible. La correction aurait même pu intervenir plus tôt, compte tenu des données macroéconomiques décevantes de ces derniers mois.

Commençons par les pays avancés. La récession de la zone euro s'est propagée de la périphérie vers le centre. La France est à présent en train d’entrer en récession. L'Allemagne doit faire face à un double coup dur : un ralentissement de la croissance dans un marché d'exportation important (Chine / Asie) et une contraction pure et simple dans d'autres (Europe du sud). La croissance économique aux États-Unis est restée anémique, à 1,5-2% durant la plus grande partie de l'année. Le Japon est en train de sombrer dans une nouvelle récession. Le Royaume-Uni, à l'instar de la zone euro, a déjà subi une récession à double creux. Même les grands exportateurs de matières premières – le Canada, les pays nordiques et l'Australie – connaissent à présent un ralentissement, suite aux vents contraires en provenance des États-Unis, de l’Europe et de la Chine.

Pendant ce temps, les économies émergentes – y compris tous les BRICs (Brésil, Russie, Inde et Chine) et d'autres acteurs majeurs tels que l'Argentine, la Turquie et l'Afrique du sud – ont également ralenti en 2012. Il est possible que le ralentissement de la Chine soit stabilisé durant quelques trimestres, grâce à la dernière injection budgétaire, monétaire et de crédit du gouvernement, mais ce stimulus ne fera que perpétuer le modèle de croissance insoutenable du pays, basé sur trop d’épargne et d'investissements fixes et trop peu de consommation privée.

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