Paul Lachine

欧元区的末日

纽约——欧元区危机似乎正在达到高潮,希腊在违约边缘苦苦徘徊,几乎要可耻地退出货币联盟了;如今意大利也即将失去市场信任。但欧元区的问题远不止这些。欧元区的问题是结构性的,而且严重影响着至少四个国家:爱尔兰、葡萄牙、塞浦路斯和西班牙。

在过去十年中,五猪国(PIIGS,葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙)是欧元区最初和最后消费者,支出比收入更多,并存在前所未有的经常项目赤字。与此同时,欧元区核心国(德国、荷兰、奥地利和法国)则组成了最初和最后生产者阵营,支出比收入更少,并存在前所未有的经常项目盈余。

这些外部失衡被2002年以来欧元的强势以及欧元区内部真实汇率和竞争力的两极分化所强化了。德国和其他核心国家的单位劳动成本有所下降(因为工资增长赶不上生产率),导致了真实汇率的贬值和经常项目盈余的增加,而五猪国(以及塞浦路斯)的情况正好相反,它们出现了真实汇率的升值和经常项目赤字的恶化。在爱尔兰和西班牙,私人储蓄急剧下降,同时房地产泡沫助长了过度消费之风;而希腊、葡萄牙、塞浦路斯和意大利的问题则是过度财政负债恶化了外部失衡问题。

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